YX 4512 · BOS → STL

departs 3:36 PM ET · arrives 6:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4512 · BOS → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?