YX 4548 · ORD → DSM

departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:09 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4548 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?