Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4553 LANDED 3:42 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4553 · CHO → LGA

took off 2:53 PM ET · landed 3:42 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ CHO is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

CHO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4553 · CHO → LGA

Odds over time