Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4574 LANDED 4:56 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YX 4574 · LGA → GSO

took off 3:36 PM ET · landed 4:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4574 · LGA → GSO

Odds over time