Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4578 · GSO → LGA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
No breakdown for this forecast yet.
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.