Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4583 · LGA → CHS
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±8 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.