Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4596 · BNA → RDU
departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.