Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4604 · CMH → LGA
departs 7:31 AM ET · arrives 9:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 5%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.