Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4619
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4619 · TUL → LGA
departs 2:04 PM CT · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±11 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.