Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4628 · LGA → ATL
departs 6:09 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.