Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4639 LANDED 1:48 PM ADT, ~6 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4639 · PHL → YHZ

took off 11:18 AM ET · landed 1:48 PM ADT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at YHZ more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

YHZ (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4639 · PHL → YHZ

Odds over time