Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4648 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4648 · ORD → GRR

departs 12:13 PM CT · arrives 1:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4648 · ORD → GRR

Odds over time