Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4670
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4670 · CAE → LGA
departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 8:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at CAE that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CAE are usually not late
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.93 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.