YX 4683 · ORD → CMH

departs 11:59 AM CT · arrives 2:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4683 · ORD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?