YX 4687 · BOS → JFK

departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4687 · BOS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?