Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4697
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4697 · CAE → LGA
departs 3:12 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±9 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.17 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.