Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4697
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4697 · LGA → CAE
departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 2:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CAE that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CAE (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.