Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4709 · ROC → BOS
departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.