Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4713 · CLE → LGA
departs 7:12 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±14 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.