YX 4724 · LGA → BOS

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±23 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7.14286 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4724 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?