YX 4764 · YYZ → PHL

departs 8:00 AM EDT · arrives 9:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 7am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4764 · YYZ → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?