YX 4807 · MEM → LGA

took off 4:44 PM CT · expected to land 8:00 PM ET (scheduled 2:23 PM CT → 6:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
92%
Over 2 hours late
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4807 · MEM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?