YX 5612 · MKE → LGA

departs 5:41 PM CT · arrives 9:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5612 · MKE → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?