Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5617 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 5617 · BNA → LGA

departs 12:57 PM CT · arrives 3:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5617 · BNA → LGA

Odds over time