YX 5785 · RIC → LGA

took off 6:08 PM ET · landed 6:57 PM ET (scheduled 5:27 PM ET → 6:54 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RIC that day

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5785 · RIC → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?