YX 5796 · LGA → BUF

departs 9:36 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5796 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?