YX 5820 · BUF → LGA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BUF that day

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5820 · BUF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?