Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 5830 · ATL → HHH
departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 3:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 11%
Sat 10/10 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
HHH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.