Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5839 LANDED 11:48 PM ET, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YX 5839 · LGA → BOS

took off 11:05 PM ET · landed 11:48 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5839 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time