Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 5843 · PIT → LGA
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 68%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±17 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,467 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.