YX 5862 · CMH → LGA

departs 11:05 AM ET · arrives 1:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5862 · CMH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?