Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7395
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
2K 7395 · JFK → GYE
departs 5:01 AM ET · arrives 10:59 AM -05
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 8%
Sat 10/10 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
18h
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.