9E 4646 · DTW → MDT

departs 2:48 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4646 · DTW → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?