Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4690 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

9E 4690 · MDW → DTW

departs 7:47 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4690 · MDW → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?