9E 4975 · CLE → JFK

departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from CLE are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4975 · CLE → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?