9E 4988 · LGA → ECP

departs 9:50 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4988 · LGA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?