9E 5009 · RDU → JFK

took off 4:20 PM ET · expected to land 5:20 PM ET (scheduled 1:52 PM ET → 3:26 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
35%
Over 2 hours late
65%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5009 · RDU → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?