Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

9E 5204 · LGA → ILM

departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 10:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5204 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?