9E 5223 · JFK → BUF

departs 9:18 AM ET · arrives 10:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5223 · JFK → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?