Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 395
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Today
9X 395 · IAD → BFD
departs 5:37 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/11 18%
Mon 10/12 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BFD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.3d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BFD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BFD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BFD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.