Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 396
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Today
9X 396 · BFD → IAD
departs 2:18 PM ET · arrives 3:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/7 6%
Sun 10/11 12%
Mon 10/12 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
1.1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
BFD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BFD
Weather at each end
BFD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.