Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 744
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
9X 744 · MKK → OGG
departs 12:00 PM HT · arrives 12:58 PM HT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 26%
Sat 10/10 25%
Sun 10/11 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.3d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MKK is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKK
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.