Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
9X 841 · MKK → HNL
departs 11:23 AM HT · arrives 11:57 AM HT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 35%
Sat 10/10 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.