Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1656 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1656 · PHX → SNA

departs 11:00 AM MT · arrives 12:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1656 · PHX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?