Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1737 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1737 · MCO → DFW

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.88 in

DFW (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1737 · MCO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?