Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1866 · RSW → PHL

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1866 · RSW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?