Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1957 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1957 · TPA → DFW

departs 5:03 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.56 in

DFW (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1957 · TPA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?