Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1976 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1976 · LGA → TPA

departs 8:07 AM ET · arrives 11:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1976 · LGA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?