AA 2049 · PHL → TPA

departs 11:07 AM ET · arrives 2:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2049 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?