Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2358 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2358 · SFO → ORD

departs 1:25 PM PT · arrives 7:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2358 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?